It is worth remembering that trade between countries is more than goods and services; it is also about pride and nationalism as well as economic development.

This should be considered particularly in the case of China, which now I would guess has cumulatively the highest tariff rate levelled by the US than any other country.

In his first term Trump ramped up tariffs on China which led to a bit of tit for tat, but it was manageable. Biden also levied his own increases too, leading to a tariff rate of about 20 per cent of some of China’s exports to the US.

These tariffs were still applied when Trump came to office in January and increased China tariffs by 20 per cent in two tranches of 10 per cent.

Today, Trump further ramped China tariffs by 34 per cent giving a cumulative rate of 74 per cent.

I point this out because these rates can be punitive not just on the increased costs of goods and services for US companies and citizens, but also on the effective denial of trade to China as they are priced out of the market.

This has ramifications which affect the economy of China and its sense of pride adding to the grievance mentality China already has about the West denying China its rightful and historic place (as it sees it) in the world.

We have seen this before in a slightly different guise and it led to the second world war.

In 1939, the US terminated a commercial treaty with Japan that had existed since 1911 as part of an effort to curtail Japan’s expansionism and militarism in China.

This was followed by an embargo on scrap iron from the US which accounted for 74 per cent of Japan’s total imports. The US also embargoed copper which accounted for 93 per cent of Japan’s needs.

These embargoes were swiftly followed by bans on the export of oil and avgas among other products.

The nationalistic and militaristic Japanese government saw this as a direct attack on their economy. The government saw these embargoes as a defacto, but undeclared state of war.

Their national will and desire to be a world power in their own right was being thwarted by US policy, they believed.

We know the result: Pearl Harbour.

I am a hawk when it comes to China and its aims, but I think punitive tariffs will only foster a greater sense of hostility to the US and from a broader perspective drive more countries into China’s orbit.

I don’t think these tariffs will lead to a third world war, but they add to further geopolitical instability in the Asia Pacific which does not augur well for the future.