Let’s gamble. I will bet you $1,000 that in 10 years’ time any five non replenishing commodities of your choosing will be cheaper.
This is exactly what happened between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich between 1980 and 1990.
Biologist Paul Ehrlich is infamous for being wrong. The very first line in his entry on Wikipedia reads, ‘[Ehrlich is] best known for his pessimistic and inaccurate predictions and warnings…’
Famously, Ehrlich wrote the book Population Bomb (1968) predicting mass starvation in the 1970s due to a spiralling population boom in which agricultural output would not be able to meet the growing demand for food.
When the 1970s passed with no such global crisis, Ehrlich did the opposite of what any good scientist would do. Instead of reassessing his perspective and adjusting his model to meet the new data, Ehrlich doubled down. This time, he professed such claims as this:
‘By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people… If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.’
It is 2023, and unless a freak tsunami has emerged in the period between writing and publication, England is very much alive and well. But I digress.
After these comments, enters Julian Simon. Simon was a professor as the University of Maryland specialising in environmental economics. Reading Ehrlich’s ludicrous claims, Simon publicly challenged Ehrlich to a friendly bet.
The conditions were as follows. Ehrlich could choose any five non-government controlled raw materials. Ehrlich picked copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. The bet was to last 10 years. Starting from September 1980 through to September 1990.
Ehrlich and Simon bought $200 worth of each commodity on paper. After the 10 years would pass, the loser of the bet would have to pay the winner the difference in price. Ehrlich could have lost $1,000; Simon’s losses could have been infinite.
When 1990 came around, Ehrlich mailed a cheque of $576.07 to Simon. Simon was right on all three commodities. The average price of the commodities fell by around 30 per cent.
What Simon had predicted would happen came true. Human ingenuity prevailed. In the case of the metals, the total supply of three increased (thus reducing the price) and alternative uses and substitutes emerged. Tin was replaced by aluminium. Chromium had better smelting techniques.
Ehrlich’s Malthusian nightmare is yet to come to pass. When reflecting, Ehrlich has refused to admit he was wrong. Considering England still exists (much to the grumblings of the Scots, the Irish, the Welsh, the French…) or that global population has more than doubled since Population Bomb was written, Ehrlich could be a bit humbler. Instead, Ehrlich has never admitted that he was wrong about his predictions. Despite, in so far as I can tell, none having become true.
In a tweet from January 4, 2023, Ehrlich still maintains he was right.
If I’m always wrong so is science, since my work is always peer-reviewed, including the POPULATION BOMB and I’ve gotten virtually every scientific honour. Sure I’ve made some mistakes, but no basic ones.
If predicting that England would be an archipelago by the year 2000, or that India wouldn’t be able to feed 200 million people by 1980 (it feeds far more today), or that advocating for forced government sterilisation in drinking water aren’t basic mistakes, then I’m not sure what would qualify.
Let us not finish this piece on the failings of one man, but the triumphs of another. Julian Simon is the real hero here. His optimism for the future and unwavering belief that humans are the greatest economic resource is to be celebrated. He took on enormous personal risk, with an unquestioning belief in humans, and he was right. Our greatest resource is ourselves.
Nathan Cuthbertson is a Mannkal Economic Education Foundation Alumnus
