President Trump’s second term is already colliding with voter concerns over the economy, immigration, and tariffs. As his approval ratings falter, domestic political forces may reshape US policy in the Indo-Pacific.
At the Trump Administration’s six-month mark, voters are growing uneasy.
According to a July 16-20 Wall Street Journal poll, majorities disapprove of the President’s handling of key issues such as foreign policy (51 per cent), inflation (55 per cent), immigration (51 per cent), the economy (53 per cent), and tariffs (57 per cent).
Mr Trump’s job approval is also underwater with 46 per cent of voters approving and 52 per cent disapproving of his performance in office.
These concerns are colliding with an economic slowdown – one marked by stalled hiring, declining private investment, and mounting uncertainty caused by aggressive deportations and an unpredictable tariff regime.
Adding to the unknowns is a lack of clarity as to who is available for hire given the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation of foreign-born labourers.
Although voters have reservations about Mr Trump, voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on handling a variety of policies.
According to the poll, Congressional Democrats lag Republicans on immigration (28 per cent to 45 per cent), the economy (27 per cent to 38 per cent), and on inflation (28 per cent to 38 per cent).
The only policy areas where Democrats are favoured more than Republicans are in healthcare (40 per cent to 26 per cent) and vaccines (40 per cent to 31 per cent).
Concerning deportations, polls indicate that voters are happy with removing illegal aliens who have committed crimes. Even so, survey research has found voters want fair treatment of individuals who, despite entering the country unlawfully, have become productive members of their communities.
Under normal circumstances, the minority party’s prospects at the polls would be better. However, Democrats today are still unpopular with the July 16-20 Wall Street Journal poll finding a 33 per cent approval rating and a 63 per cent disapproval rating – the highest such approval-disapproval deficit in 35 years.
These poor numbers for the Democrat Party reflect voters’ continued rebuke of the Biden administration in spite of their current dissatisfaction with President Trump.
Nonetheless, unhappiness with the Democrats does not appear to be damaging the party’s prospects for next year’s Congressional elections.
Participants in the survey were asked how they would vote if the 2026 Congressional midterm elections were held today. More voters said they would back a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 3 points, 46 per cent to 43 per cent.
Moreover, 55 per cent of the poll’s respondents said that the US is heading in the wrong direction while 39 per cent say it is heading in the right direction.
These numbers – and the Republicans very narrow majority in the House – indicate advantages for the Democrats in the November, 2026 midterm contests.
An added edge for Democrats next year are historical trends. While there are exceptions, the President’s party typically loses US House of Representatives seats in midterm elections. Since 1994, the President’s party has lost the national House popular vote in seven out of eight midterm elections.
A loss of the current Republican majority in either the US House or US Senate would throw a wrench into President Trump’s legislative agenda. It would also probably result in Congressional investigations into the President’s administration.
What would these political developments portend for Washington’s relations with the Indo-Pacific?
In the short term, the President would have less bandwidth to pursue his domestic and overseas priorities as he fends off a Democrat controlled Congress. This would distract from Pacific-focused agendas from trade wars to diplomacy to handling the rise of China.
It could also result in decreased presidential travel to Asia and even less attendance at regional summits (ASEAN, APEC, etc.).
Regardless of these constraints, Trump’s ideological commitment to tariffs means Asia should expect Washington to continue aggressively levying import taxes on countries in efforts to open foreign markets and achieve specific policy objectives.
Over the longer term, divided government in Washington could result in Mr Trump having less of a free hand to handle the effects of his undoing of the global trade order which has antagonised partners and squandered goodwill.
This could leave Mr Trump – and his successors – with less influence in the Pacific, resulting in reduced opportunities for economic and military partnerships.
Other possible outcomes include Asian states seeking to avoid entering into agreements with a Washington they view as predatory, unreliable, and increasingly willing to bargain away security commitments in search of deals.
Mr Trump and the new Congress will need to be prepared for a new world in which Indo-Pacific countries will seek trade blocs with one another that exclude the US and include China, thereby increasing their reliance on Beijing and weakening American geopolitical clout.
Unless recalibrated, the erosion of US credibility may also encourage Chinese assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait and embolden North Korea.
With power in Congress potentially shifting and President Trump’s approval ratings falling, the road ahead for the US in Asia is increasingly uncertain. To remain a trusted leader in the Indo-Pacific, the administration will need to tack towards less punitive approaches to allies and rebuilding confidence.
While such a reversal in policy is unlikely for the remainder of this administration, a new Congress may try to do their part by advocating for reinvestment in alliances and strengthening capabilities.
Ted Gover, Ph.D. (@tedgover), is a member of the faculty at Claremont Graduate University in Los Angeles.
