If you were hoping August would be a quiet month in geopolitics – just you, the footy finals, and maybe a bit of barbie time – bad luck.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have decided to hold a little get-together in Alaska on August 15, and the rest of the world is expected to watch as if it’s the finale of Married at First Sight. The topic on the table: ending the war in Ukraine. The subtext: rearranging the world order like it’s the seating plan at a very awkward wedding.
From an Australian vantage point, it’s all slightly surreal. Two nuclear powers meeting in America’s frozen outpost to decide Europe’s borders – while the rest of us, including Nato, are left wondering whether we’re even invited to the afterparty. It’s a bit like finding out the bride and groom have eloped, and you’re just getting the postcard.
Why Alaska?
Alaska sits across the Bering Strait from Russia – close enough for neighbourly awkwardness, far enough for plausible deniability. Symbolically, it’s America saying: ‘We’re meeting halfway.’ Which in Trump-speak often means, ‘We’ll meet halfway, as long as I still get to keep the trophy.’ For Putin, the optics are priceless: standing on US soil as an equal partner, without having to be frisked by the TSA.
Domestic theatre
For Trump, this is about proving to voters back home that he can ‘close the deal’ where the diplomatic establishment has floundered – preferably before the 2026 midterms. For Putin, it’s the perfect chance to end his diplomatic exile, to show Russians the West comes knocking on his door (even if it’s via Anchorage). Both men are performing for domestic audiences, which means actual peace may be incidental to the photo-op.
China’s looming shadow
Make no mistake, Beijing will be watching this summit like a hawk that’s just noticed someone fiddling with its nest. Trump may fancy himself as the modern Nixon – only this time, flipping Russia to isolate China. Beijing’s likely countermove? Tighten its embrace of Moscow, offer more cheap loans, maybe toss in a destroyer or two in the Arctic, just to remind everyone who’s really moving the pieces.
What’s in it for us?
Australia’s stake here is more than abstract. If US-Russia relations thaw, energy markets will shift, potentially lowering LNG prices – and with them, some of our export margins. A precedent that says ‘grab land by force and we’ll sort it out over coffee’ is hardly reassuring for a middle power that relies on rules, not muscle, to keep shipping lanes open. If great powers decide the world is best run by private deals between alpha males, middle powers like us could find ourselves cast as the waitstaff, clearing the table after the feast.
The Arctic angle
There’s also the not-so-minor matter of the Arctic. A US-Russia chat in Alaska is a reminder that the polar regions are no longer just about penguins and postcards. Melting ice means shipping routes, oil, gas, and – if history is any guide – plenty of flags being planted. If they can ‘agree’ over Ukraine, what’s to stop them divvying up Arctic rules while they’re at it?
The precedent problem
The real worry is precedent. If borders can be moved at the point of a gun and then legitimised over a pot of coffee in Alaska, the message to other would-be land-grabbers is: go for it. Taiwan, the South China Sea, even the odd Pacific island could suddenly look very tempting to those with a navy and an appetite.
Multipolar or just messy?
Hegemony, we’re told, is about who sets the rules. But this Alaska rendezvous hints at something messier – a future where the rules are whatever the big players agree over dinner. That’s less ‘multipolar’ and more ‘mates rates’ geopolitics. For Australia, a country that’s bet heavily on the US alliance and a rules-based order, that’s a little like discovering the referee has joined the other team for drinks.
So as Trump and Putin pose for the cameras next week, spare a thought for those of us Down Under. We might not be in the room, but the ripples from that frozen photo-op could reach the Pacific sooner than we think. And if history is any guide, when the great powers carve up the map, Australia usually gets the bill.
