Headlines this morning are bragging that Queensland ‘should be an easy win for the LNP’, which reminds me of that well-trod saying, never count your chickens before they hatch.

Nothing has been decided in Queensland, and Australian voters have a habit of re-electing governments who abuse, impoverish, and mock them. Why voters do this remains complicated, but it would be foolish to pretend that ‘merit’ is the basis for victory.

‘Merit’ is a generous term in the context of modern Australian politics. When commentators talk about the ‘least worst’ option, they are not exaggerating. The leaders of today would not be fit to carry coffee for the staffers of yesterday.

Speaking of lacking merit, the Greens are set to win between two and five seats in Brisbane.

Brisbane – what are you doing?

Is this a result of vague environmental empathy or a genuine knowledge of Green policy and sympathy for Middle Eastern terror groups wrongly labelled ‘resistance fighters’?

In Labor’s nightmares following the Freshwater Strategy poll, Queensland’s Parliament will be home to a 27 Labor MPs and 57 for the LNP.

Labor’s frantic campaign may be a response to the glitz and unwelcome glamour of Palaszczuk’s final years. She was not rejected for saying dumb things such as, ‘Queensland hospitals are only for Queenslanders’ but rather for treading a few too many red carpets. Elitism is on the nose right when the left has indulged their transition from the party of the working man to the ‘mean girls’ of global bureaucracy with a champagne flute at every UN talk-fest.

Despite voters scorning leaders who board private jets, they remain aligned with the UN’s Sustainability Goals and the industrialisation of the environment that comes with the renewable energy roll-outs which dominate the Queensland budget.

This may (and probably will) change as Queensland’s famous beaches are littered with the trash of wind turbines. Environmentalism has its limits. Ruining the beachfront property of a Green voter is guaranteed to shake them back to reality. We suspect the Liberals are have worked this out, and are fortifying their future prospects by taking it easy on the renewable tag line.

Setting that aside, current Queensland Premier Steven Miles has a credibility problem.

They call him ‘giggles’ not because he smiles too much, but because he uses the faux charm as an escape door for difficult questions.

The insincerity of politicians is never more clear than in the week leading up to an election.

Almost without exception, politicians develop a collection of moral ‘live or die’ obsessions. For Steven Miles, it is a devotion to the starving masses of Queensland school children leading him to invade cafeterias around the state. You might also find prospective politicians pulling pints at random pubs or playing sports in three-piece suits.

This behaviour is not extraordinary. What remains bewildering is how many members of the press take these theatrical acts seriously with a stern ‘nod’ of approval.

Steven Miles, who described his premiership as an ‘audition’, has been running election theatre as one long gravy train.

His social media accounts show that prior to the election announcement, the only lunches he was interested in were his own. Plate after plate. No starving children in sight.

In the last couple of months, from thin air, Steven Miles has made school lunches the chief concern of the next government. Given the air time, you’d imagine there were starving masses clawing at the door of Parliament and soup kitchens outside every preschool.

It is obvious that some adviser behind the scenes, saddled with the unenviable task of finding a ‘feel-good’ campaign in a sea of Labor disaster, decided that ‘kids’, ‘free’, and ‘food’ were three things they could sell.

When we say ‘sell’ we mean ‘steal’ because, like all ‘free lunches’, they are purchased by the taxpayer.

It’s somewhat of an ‘own goal’ for the Labor Party.

Imagine deciding that your grand election strategy involves admitting that your government has failed so badly that children are starving across the state.

If you wander back through the news articles related to food insecurity in Queensland, Covid lockdowns are listed as the primary cause. Lockdowns that were wholly the fault of Labor.

‘With the impacts of Covid placing extreme pressure on families, many parents are facing the scary reality of not being able to feed their kids. Our School Breakfast Program is vital for children facing hunger, but sadly 79 Queensland schools are currently on Foodbank’s growing waitlist,’ wrote FoodBank’s Queensland CEO.

Helping families that fall through the cracks is a perfectly reasonable cause. Miles spending billions of dollars on children – almost all of whom are well-fed – is a shocking waste of taxpayer money.

Looking closely at the food security problem in Queensland, the answer – while making sure that existing charity structures are supported – would be to ensure that the families involved can access secure work, start businesses, and move back to a state of independence. In the event that children are not fed as a consequence of neglect, restrictions on existing public support should be looked at.

Throwing ‘free food’ around to those who do not need it will have the obvious consequence of making everyone poorer. Although this is worse than merely stealing from the taxpayer. By providing food, the money parents would ordinarily spend at local businesses is also taken out of the system, leading to the closure of local shops, local farms, and with their demise the general public will lose access to fresh food. In turn, ‘free lunches’ will eventually put more people out of work. At this point, their sudden poverty will leave them dependent on the state food. Government appears incapable of thinking through the consequences of their election cash splashes. Society is a deeply interconnected system and government programs behave like sledge-hammers.

‘Free lunch’ policies recklessly presented accentuate poverty rather than alleviate it. Which is hardly a surprise, given it comes from the Greens who are notoriously hopeless. We may also remember Rudyard Kipling’s observation of the free lunches in the late 1890s which were devised by establishments to make more money. In giving away free, salty food, desperate men bought bucket-loads of expensive beer to wash it down.

What the free school lunch program does is nudge the LNP toward the trap of arguing against the stomachs of hungry children. It’s a common and cheap political tactic that works if the opposition is ill-prepared and lacking in linguistic ferocity.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has decided to ignore Steven Miles, side-step the trap, and instead pose with a freshly baked beef and brisket pie baked for the footy.

Crisafulli has pursued the bigger electoral ground, doubling down on safety and security and fixing Queensland’s abysmal healthcare system.

These are things that polls show Queensland taxpayers want their money spent on.

‘We’ll deliver nine new Regional Reset Programs as part of our plan to divert at-risk youth from crime and restore safety where you live.’ This sounds more promising than the Greens saying a free breakfast for high school kids will stop them nicking cars.

‘We will put [the victims of violent crime] first with a new advocacy service that will provide end-to-end support through the justice process,’ tweeted Crisafulli.

‘We will open a Crime Prevention School in Townsville to restore safety where you live.’

‘Respect for your money – the LNP will restore it, if Queenslanders vote for a Fresh Start in 16 days.’

‘Debt will be lower under an LNP government because we respect Queenslanders’ money.’

‘Young Queenslanders who buy or build a new home will not pay one cent of stamp duty.’

‘Adult Crime, Adult Time and Gold Standard Intervention – we have The Right Plan to restore safety where you live.’

‘We will deliver justice for victims of crime by ensuring Courts can access the full criminal rap sheets of youth offenders.’

The slogans for his ‘Fresh Start’ campaign have been focused. Labor can feel itself losing, which might be why it pulled out all stops on the ‘Crisafulli won’t answer questions on abortion!’ campaign, which has seen Miles tweet incessantly about women’s rights for the last 48 hours.

Miles has two problems. The first is that his claims about Crisafulli and abortion are not true. This is supported by parties such as Family First who trying to use the ‘you’re not pro-life enough’ line as a wedge against the Liberal Party.

The other problem is that Labor cannot champion women’s rights without drawing attention to its record of removing rights from women and girls and being wholly incapable of defining the term ‘woman’.

The most protected and privileged women in Miles’ Labor state are biological men – and women know it.

Miles has reminded half of the voting public that Labor has destroyed women’s rights during its hunt for a minority of inner-city social justice seats which are going to end up in the hands of the Greens anyway.

Women were the most likely group of voters to be swayed by the ‘free lunches’ campaign, and now they are the group who despise Miles the most.