The Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews, has been back from China for several weeks now.
He’s still to advise what he achieved when he was there.
Other than appeal to the Chinese voters during the Aston by-election, it’s not obvious.
This is a Labor government that dances around the truth, that obfuscates. Its leadership mocks. Derides. And yet, in the same breath, Victorian Labor is at one with the people, its leader is just a dad with a sore back.
But the lack of clarity surrounding the trip to China may change next week when he hands down the 2023-24 Victorian Budget.
The state of the State is miserable: by next month, Victoria’s debt will hit $116 billion. The interest payments on that debt this financial year are nearly $4 billion, $70 million every week.
In June 2026, the debt is destined for $166 billion.
Imagine what could be achieved if $4 billion of the state’s finances were not at the whim of a socialist premier who thinks splurging other people’s money is good governance.
But spending other people’s money is central to his political way. He celebrates it. Champions it. Claps it all the way to the ballot box, and now, all the way to Canberra for a bail out.
It is confirmed in government media releases where readers are incessantly bombarded with this phrase: ‘Thanks to the Andrews government!’ For example, a community festival is held ‘thanks to the Andrews government’.
In truth, it’s not thanks to the Andrews government, it’s thanks to Victorian taxpayers who are enduring 45 new or increased taxes. Victorians are finding themselves at soup buses and struggling to pay surging energy bills. It’s a simple equation: they go hungry, Andrews gets bigger billboards.
So, one wonders then, why the Premier remains so secretive about his China travels.
Were they code for another Belt and Road initiative?
‘Thanks to the Andrews government’, Victoria has big bills on the horizon and the money is going to have to come from somewhere. Think $2.6 billion for the Commonwealth Games and $125 billion for the Suburban Rail Loop.
Yes, Victorian Labor needs money, but such is the dire state of our finances the Premier needs to be seen to be fiscally responsible. He knows credit agencies are wary of his attitude to the bottom line.
Victoria lost its haloed AAA credit rating from S&P in Dec 2020 – to AA1. Moody’s then followed suit in Feb 2021. In May 2022 Moody’s then downgraded it further to AA1 to AA2. Another dip would be catastrophic. With each drop in credit ratings, lenders usually charge more interest as the risks are seen to rise.
There’s little doubt the talk of 5,000 public sector job cuts is being touted to appear financially prudent. Strangely, they weren’t mentioned before the November state election.
But it is a joke, surely, a little jig to keep the credit agencies entertained at the same time as he hails the 59,000 jobs he will create with the Lazarus-like reincarnation of the SEC.
Even at its most bloated under the Kirner government, the SEC had about 24,000 employees. The Kennett privatisation got that workforce down to about 3,800.
The Premier’s maths is this: cut 5,000 here, add 59,000 over there.
Add-on the $424 million training package to get the 6,000 SEC-apprentices required.
Then add the promise to recruit 17,000 nurses and midwives. Victorians will pay for their degrees and give them $5,000 sign-on bonuses – but only if they join the public health sector.
This is not to say they’re not needed – but they do need to be paid for – and the bill is bigger because of his vote-for-me freebies. The impact could gut the private health sector which is needed for the public system to survive.
It is why his trip to China requires scrutiny.
In one direction or other, it will result in Chinese investment and perhaps making China the bank of choice for this cash-strapped State.
The Premier talks in saccharine language about his relationship with a dictator country that fails every test of transparency and cuts agricultural contracts on a whim.
We know the Melbourne Airport Rail Link and the evergreen Geelong Fast Rail projects may be put on hold. Promises one day, flicked the next.
As the highest taxing state per capita, Victorians can expect the ominous crown to fit even tighter next week.
The Victorian private sector and homeowners should settle into the catching position and prepare for further developer contributions and more property-related taxes including stamp duty and land tax.
We already know the Greens want a $14 billion state-based big bank levy. From them, no word about cutting costs.
An easy $15 million could be saved by re-instating private sponsorship of Australia’s netball team, the Diamonds. Why should Victorians pay for a virtue signalling national team? Mining is paying nearly every other bill in Australia, but it’s not good enough for our netballers.
Victorians are rightly wary of the Premier’s magical mystery no-journalists-allowed tour to China.
Will this be the Premier’s Beijing-budget?
Bev McArthur also sits on the Public Accounts and Estimates Committee, PAEC.
