All the talk is about submarines and Aukus, but the very big geopolitical issue is the war in Ukraine.
Elements of the Western world continue to pour resources into Ukraine; this includes America, Britain, and to a lesser extent, Australia.
Axiomatically, if you are supporting Ukraine as, in principle, we all are, as I have said many times, you are opposing Russia; and if Russia sees itself in difficulty, China comes to its aid.
Donald Trump, in a recent speech at Maryland, made the point that he was the Presidential candidate to end world war three.
He basically said he would sit these blokes down and, in Trump style, say no winner here can have everything.
I have said many times, when Trump was President, we heard nothing from the Rocket Man, Xi, or Putin.
In the last week, Donald Trump has answered some questions on Ukraine, arguing that, under Putin, self-inflicted wounds and mistakes by America had been made over the past two years.
Rightly Trump said:
‘Russia would definitely not have raided and attacked Ukraine if I was your President. In fact, for four years, they didn’t attack, nor did they have any intention of doing so as long as I was in charge. But the sad fact is that, due to a new lack of respect for the US, caused at least partially by our incompetently handled pull-out from Afghanistan and the very poor choice of words by Biden in explaining US requests and intentions. Remember, he said Biden’s first statement was that Russia could have some of Ukraine, no problem. So, the bloody and expensive assault began and continues to this day… The President must meet with each side then both sides together and work out a deal. This can easily be done if conducted by the right President. Both sides are weary and ready to make a deal. The meetings, he said, should start immediately. There is no time to spare. The death and destruction MUST END NOW… This terrible and tragic war, a war that never should have started in the first place, will come to a speedy end.’
This all leads to a valid question.
What does any scholarly analysis of this war demonstrate?
Professor Peter Frankopan is the Professor of Global History at Oxford University.
The author of The Earth Transformed: An untold history.
In answering the question – Is Putin winning? – his conclusion is, alarmingly, that the world order is changing in Putin’s favour.
He talks about Moscow’s diplomatic mission to build ties; that in March, last year, 25 African states, out of 54, abstained or didn’t vote in a UN motion condemning the invasion, despite huge pressure from Western powers.
Professor Frankopan argues, ‘Their refusal to side clearly with Ukraine was testament to Russia’s ongoing diplomatic efforts in the developing world.’
He then makes reference to the North African countries which have helped Russia offset the economic effect of Western sanctions, citing the fact that Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt have all, in the last year, imported Russian diesel and other refined oils.
Then the Professor leaves Africa and comes to Asia where he argues that a third of the Asian countries declined to condemn Russia in the initial UN vote, as well as Central and Southern America, where he says, ‘Waves of anti-Western and anti-capitalist sentiment continue to swell.’
He makes the point that the idea now holds sway, that it is America and its allies who are the sources of global disruption and instability.
In layman’s language, for many countries around the world, the West is on the nose.
Therefore, there is this sympathy, according to the Professor, that Putin is simply standing up to the West.
Professor Frankopan reminds us that when Putin addressed his Federal Assembly last week, he referenced Western military interventions in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, and Syria.
That leads Russia and China, he argues, to keep talking about stability in a world gone mad, even though, as we know, Moscow seeks to further destabilise the world and make it even madder.
But to all of that, as the Professor says, you add China, which has been buying record amounts of cheap Russian oil and gas and exporting all sorts of machinery to Russia.
So, the Professor asks the question: is Russia losing?
As he says, the Ukrainians have fought astonishingly well, but have suffered huge losses.
Western leaders, he argues, speak of giving Kyiv the tools to finish the job, but his assessment is that, ‘What the coming weeks, months, and even years have to offer looks bleak.’
He asserts that Russia’s economy appears strong enough to keep the war going and that, his words, ‘Russia will keep throwing untrained recruits into the meat-grinder in which three-quarters of them die.’
The Professor also reminds us that commentators on Russian TV gleefully make the point that Europeans are freezing to death because of high energy prices or have been forced to eat grasshoppers because of a lack of Russian wheat imports.
Admittedly, these are sensational comments, but behind them is the hope that Ukraine’s supporters are exhausting themselves and that cracks, says the Professor, may soon appear in the West’s wall of solidarity.
Professor Frankopan asserts that, as a result of this war, the world order is changing and not in favour of the West.
Which brings us back to Trump.
Whatever might be said of him, there were no wars during his Presidency.
There were no body bags and no troops sent into battlefield.
His critics described that as isolationism.
His supporters rightly claim it is the product of strong leadership.
I have long argued there is a crisis in Western political leadership and the war between Russia and Ukraine is the most ugly, brutal, destructive, and abominable manifestation of that.
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