Germany could never have won the first world war. She was opposed by Great Britain, France, Italy, Russia, and eventually the United States, and (for those that had them), their empires as well. With only Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria as allies Germany, was always going to be outnumbered. Additionally, both Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were at the time described as empires in decline, or in the case of the Ottoman Empire, the ‘sick man of Europe’. Between 1914 and 1918 Germany only launched three major offensives, offensives always having higher casualty rates than defence. By 1918, Germany was running out of fit men to send to the front.

In the second world war, Germany again found herself pitted against Russia, at the time called the USSR, and once again she would eventually be outnumbered. This was especially the case after Germany declared war on the United States four days after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour.

The Schlieffen Plan, put in play in 1914, was to take France out of the war in six weeks, after which the German army was to march back across Germany in time to meet, and defeat, the slow-to-mobilise Russians. All going well, the war should have been over by Christmas. The German Army in 1940, practising blitzkrieg tactics (which had their beginnings in the final year of the first world war), finally achieved their aspirations of 1914, but twenty-six years too late, and defeated France in six weeks. It was in the USSR where the Germany Army was slowed down and eventually defeated.

In both wars, Germany knew she needed a quick war if she was to win.

Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022. All signs tell us Putin wanted and expected a quick war. Poor military planning, logistical problems, low military preparedness all undermined early Russian military efforts but also pointed to an expectation that Ukraine, certainly eastern Ukraine, would capitulate quickly.

Any country that wants a quick war, wants it because they fear they won’t win a long war. The United States in South Vietnam with their search and destroy missions were always looking for open conflict. It was the kind of war that suited their army in the second world war on the battlefields of Europe, and the kind of war they could win quickly. Deprived of that, they knew by 1968, three years after the first marine had arrived in Danang, they would not be able to win a war that went for much longer. Washington knew the American people, sooner or later, would say ‘no’ to sending more men to die on the other side for the Pacific for a cause too many people no longer believed in. As the Communist leader Ho Chi Minh had told the French in the First Indochina War:

‘You can kill ten of my men for everyone I kill of yours, but even at those odds, you will lose, and I will win.’

And whilst he did not live to see the day, he was right.

So, Putin has not achieved his quick successful war. Can Russia now fight, and win a long, war?

Russia’s population in 2021 was 143.4 million. Ukraine’s in the same year, was 43.79 million. Sooner or later, if the war keeps going, Ukraine, like Germany in both world wars, is going to run out of people to fight it. Rather than economic sanctions crippling the Russian economy, in 2023 the IMF expects the Russian economy to grow. Increasingly the Russian people will be asked to make sacrifices to win the war, but as the war goes on Russian people themselves will become more invested in winning it. If not already, soon it will not just be Putin who is feeling Russia must win.

So, if Russia is preparing for a long war, and her people outnumber Ukrainians three to one, what is the West to do? Other than those countries who fear if Ukraine goes, they will be next, it is unlikely the West will send troops to Ukraine. But still, the West does not want to see Ukraine fall. It would vindicate Russia and make her a more dangerous adversary in Eastern Europe, and it would perhaps encourage other ambitious dictator’s ideas of conquest.

Coming up to the first and hopefully only anniversary of the beginnings of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the West must follow the United States’ lead and increase their military commitment to Ukraine. In January, Germany finally agreed to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Poland has committed 250 T-72 style tanks. Denmark and the Netherlands are also providing Leopard tanks. The United Kingdom is sending 14 Challenger 2 tanks.

On February 8, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, was in Westminster where he presented the House of Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle with a Ukrainian air force pilot’s helmet. Ukraine wants jets.

There are many reasons to support Ukraine. The Ukrainian people with their bravery and resilience have given the West a cause they should get behind. Whilst Ukraine may not have been the perfect liberal democracy, few countries are, it is a better political system to the one on offer in Russia, and one that is worth fighting for.