It’s not looking good for Bill Shorten is it? Two days in the dock at the Royal Commission, the two worst parliamentary weeks of his leadership at his back and one hell of a National Conference only a week away. No wonder that sage old crocodile Laurie Oakes wrote in last Saturday’s News Corp tabloids that Mr Shorten should take out his parliamentary pension sooner rather than later for Labor’s sake.

There are more than a few conservative voices trumpeting that Bill Shorten is finished, gleefully looking forward to an immediate resignation. Well, be careful what you wish for. Labor is ahead in every poll and has been for nearly 18 months. They’re still ahead despite a miraculous resurrection from the Prime Minister, as well as Labor’s ridiculous move to block pension reform and their continuing and deadly lack of any asylum seeker policy.

Bill Shorten – shifty, uninspiring, totally unsuited to stand where Curtin and Whitlam, Hawke and Keating once stood – is, despite this, still in the game. Imagine what might happen if Labor had a leader who was any good?

Shorten’s appearance at the commission may not have offered a ‘smoking gun’ but nobody could accuse the Opposition Leader’s performance of looking like the Assumption of the Virgin Mary. The revelation that a labour hire firm, Unibilt, had put up $40,000 to pay for Shorten’s 2007 campaign manager while Shorten’s union, the AWU, was negotiating with the firm raised a fair quota of eyebrows. Even the nation’s political junkies went ‘wow!’ when Shorten revealed he had declared the donation to the AEC two days before his hearing. Yep, it only took him eight years. Nothing shifty about this bloke.

Okay, everybody does it. We can bet Liberal ministers won’t want this hearing to lead to excessive scrutiny of the murky swamp political donations often constitutes. But just because everybody and her dog does it doesn’t let Bill Shorten off. This man is the alternative Prime Minister of the nation and what he does should be above suspicion and should ‘pass the pub test’. It isn’t and it doesn’t.

Yes, there are the trade union deals with Thiess John Holland so flamboyantly canvassed in the Fairfax papers. Now the one thing from that which really stinks is the $30,000 extracted by Shorten and the AWU outside the enterprise bargaining agreement. Again, everyone does it, but not everyone seeks to be the heir of Curtin and Hawke.

The general consensus from the pundits far and wide, left and right, is that Shorten may not need to resign immediately but that his rather dodgy performance before the Royal Commission just reinforced every negative perception. The weak, fey outrage, the inability to give a straight answer, the distinctly whiffy deals. Shorten revealed himself to be what we already knew he was from the Rudd-Gillard saga. Just a bit more so.

And that’s exactly what Tony Abbott needs as he faces an election. A weak Bill Shorten against whom in a presidential-style campaign Darth Vader could probably come out on top as standing for something. Abbott’s bizarre inability in the polls to capitalise on Shorten’s weaknesses or the PM’s own recent successes means that if anyone else ran for the Labor leadership he could be in trouble.

All the potential Labor leadership contenders are flawed but there are three formidable frontrunners.

Top of the list is Tanya Plibersek. Lots of people make excuses about why she’s not the chosen one but she’s the first name out of everyone’s mouths when asked both ‘who should be next?’ and ‘who could win the election?’ She’s obviously flawed by her lack of an economic background which is no asset in any campaign but Abbott’s not exactly an economic whiz-kid either. She’s great on the telly but she’s not a fighter in parliament to equal Julia Gillard or Paul Keating. Not yet anyway. She massively misjudged with her binding gay marriage proposal. But with a Bowen figure by her side, guiding her towards sensible economics, who knows? She does have that Empress of all the Russias swagger that Gillard could only dream of.

Then there’s Anthony Albanese. The former Rudd deputy’s biggest problem is he looks like more like Arthur Calwell than Tony Blair. But those homely, tough as old boots Labor blokes know a little something about fire and brimstone and Albo has it in him to fight the good fight in parliament in a way the very limp Shorten could never rise to. Abbott is still vulnerable and anybody with enough willpower might land a knockout. Albo is to be feared because he has that fight in him.

Tanya and Albo are both from the ALP Left and most of the New South Wales Right would rather see John Howard made Eternal Sun King of Australia than let a lefty take the leadership. But since they no longer have the numbers at National Conference, their assent may be less essential than usual.

The ALP Right does have ex-Speccie columnist Chris Bowen. He’s probably the best economic mind in the ALP and he has a moderate, sensible, reformist vision for the party all laid out in his 2013 book, Hearts and Minds. And he knows the all-important western suburbs of Sydney like the back of his hand.

Alas, Bowen’s big problem is a doozy. You really want to run Julia Gillard’s Immigration Minister against Tony ‘Stop the Boats’ Abbott? This is the man who not only blitzed out on the boats, but brought the nation the spectre of the Malaysian Solution which united Liberals and Greens and met with the wrath of the High Court.

They are all flawed, all beatable. But each one of them would be tougher to beat than Bill Shorten. Tony Abbott has gotten a lot better but he’s starting to slip. He cannot just assume he’ll face Blinky Bill. It’s possible Abbott could beat Plibersek,Bowen or Albanese, but he cannot do it from where he is now.

So, all you true blue conservatives, put away your ‘Get Bill’ t-shirts. Stop the nearest Labor person to say you want Bill in the top job. Every time you hear Paul Murray or Chris Kenny say Shorten is cooked, tweet till you can tweet no more that Bill is here to stay. And when Labor luminaries like Bob Hogg say Shorten has to go, don’t take the bait.

Bill Shorten – Royal Commission or no Royal Commission – represents the best chance Tony Abbott has of staying in power after a bumpy first term.